Conference Papers 2018

Seminar
Day 2 (11 Oct 2018), Session 4, Decision making under uncertainty – the perils of ignorance and a means of effective response, 09:00 - 10:30

Status
Accepted, documents submitted

Submitted by / Abstract owner
Stephen Cragg

Authors
Stephen Cragg, Senior Transport Planner, Transport Scotland
Glenn Lyons, Mott MacDonald Professor of Future Mobility, University of the West of England,
Malcolm Neil, Associate Director, Transport Scotland

Short abstract
Scotland's review of its National Transport Strategy will set a vision for the future. That future is uncertain and will be tackled using a Scenario Planning Process.

Abstract
A growing number of transport bodies are trying to make sense of how to inform and shape policymaking and investment in the face of deep uncertainty. A combination of potentially disruptive transport technologies and a more complex picture of societal change will determine the nature and extent of future travel demand.

Scotland’s National Transport Strategy (NTS) is being reviewed and revised and will set a vision for Scotland’s transport system for the next 20 years. As part of this initiative, the Government has recognised a need to reconcile its capacity to shape that system and its use on the one hand with external drivers of change that bring uncertainty to future conditions on the other.

This paper describes what we believe to be groundbreaking work in the transport sector internationally that is seeking to address this. The overall purpose is to be able to consider candidate policies in the face of uncertainty over the future in order to support robust decision making that can set a direction of travel towards achieving the new NTS’s outcomes.

A scenario planning tool and process is being developed. The elasticities-based spreadsheet tool is intended to handle representation of both ‘without policy’ plausible futures and, in turn, ‘with policy’ futures. It is a deliberately simplified approach that allows uncertainty to be ‘opened up’ and ‘closed down’. By using a combination of narrative and numbers it seeks to facilitate and enable the actors involved in the wider process of considering policy options to do so in a way that can help them work towards robust decisions being made on policy and investment.

The paper highlights why handling uncertainty in transport planning and decision making is a wicked problem and reveals many of the challenges involved in the work being undertaken. It points towards the importance of a ‘learning by doing’ approach and of sharing insights with others who are engaged in this area.

Programme committee
Global Trends Impacting Transport

Topic
New Mobility patterns, Digitisation and Mobility as a Service