Conference Papers 2025

Seminar
Day 2 (18 Sep 2025), Session 6, Understanding System Sustainability, 13:30 - 15:00

Status
Accepted, documents submitted

Submitted by / Abstract owner
Esko Lehtonen

Authors
Dr Esko Lehtonen, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd. (presenter)
Ville Helminen, Finnish Environment Institute Syke
Johannes Mesimaki, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd.
Dr Anu Tuominen, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd.
Dr Eetu Wallius, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd.

Short abstract
The schematic transport-land use feedback cycle was modified to describe the impacts of new transport technologies and services. The resulting model was applied to five new transport concepts and potential future developments were identified.

Abstract
Digitalization, automation, and servitisation are transforming mobility in ways that may also influence the built environment. This study modified the schematic transport-land use feedback cycle to describe qualitatively how new transport technologies and services impact transport, land use and the built environment through several impact mechanisms.

The created interaction model consisted of two main loops: the travel loop and the land use loop. The travel loop illustrates how the introduction of new transport technologies and services can alter travel resistance influencing individual travel choices and activities. The aggregate outcome of these choices represents realized travel, which feeds back into individual travel decisions through congestion and pricing. The land use loop focuses on how accessibility influences the attractiveness of locations for different purposes, such as living and business, influencing relocation decisions. This creates a feedback loop as relocations change personal accessibility. A comparatively slower feedback loop operates through changes in the built environment, as attractiveness affects investment decisions regarding the construction of buildings and infrastructure. Urban planning both shapes and is shaped by these dynamics. Additionally, investments in transport infrastructure link the transport system and land use loops. To facilitate the application of the model, seven questions were formed around it. Answering these questions provided a starting point for the identification of systemic impact mechanisms.

The model was applied to five new transport concepts: automated cars, robotaxis, automated public transport, shared mobility services, and mobility as a service (MaaS). The results were summarized as two potential development trajectories: one where automated private cars enhance car-oriented transport and urban sprawl, and another where automated public transport and new mobility services offer competitive alternatives to cars, promoting dense urban development. However, market-based mobility services may struggle to be competitive in rural areas, leading to a polarization between urban and rural regions. Access to these services may also be limited for certain groups due to lack digital skills or physical abilities. Policies to steer the development trajectories, targeting different mechanisms within the interaction model, are discussed.

Programme committee
System Thinking

Topic
Creating healthy, efficient, safe and inclusive transport schemes for current and future generations