ETC Conference Papers

Seminar
Day 1 (7 Sep 2022), Session 2, DISRUPTIONS IN URBAN MOBILITY, 14:00 - 16:00

Status
Accepted, documents submitted

Submitted by / Abstract owner
Barbara Laa

Authors
Barbara Laa, Paul Pfaffenbichler

Short abstract
The concept of a nationwide mobility service guarantee is applied to Austria, using the strategic LUTI model MARS. We simulate different scenarios with a combination of push and pull measures to assess the impact on travel.

Abstract
Transport systems focused on the private car are increasingly proving to be problematic. This is not only due to environmental impacts such as CO2-emissions and extensive land use but also considering social justice issues (Mattioli, 2016). Nevertheless, restrictive measures to curb car use such as an increase in fuel prices can have negative implications for people with low income who live in car dependent conditions. Therefore, solutions should consider appropriate sustainable alternatives as well. One of the approaches that tries to tackle social and ecological challenges alike is the concept of a nationwide mobility service guarantee (MSG). The Austrian government is committed to introduce such a guarantee (BKA, 2020). Not yet defined in detail, the concept shall ensure that every person in Austria can satisfy their mobility needs in a sustainable way (e.g. without having to use a private car).

In a previous study, Laa et al. (2022) developed different design scenarios for an MSG in Austria with the help of expert and user workshops. According to those scenarios, the guarantee will be based on the provision of classic public transport (PT) services of high quality (i.e. great temporal and spatial availability for a wide range of users), complemented by demand responsive transportation (DRT) as well as “smart mobility services” for remote areas where traditional PT cannot be delivered efficiently. Additionally, conditions for walking and cycling will be improved for short distance trips and as a feeder mode for PT. Booking, payment and usage shall be as easy and integrated as possible, e.g. as part of a Mobility as a Service (MaaS) approach. Thus making the system attractive and competitive against private motorized modes.

We simulate these scenarios using the System Dynamics model MARS (for descriptions of the basic structure, see Pfaffenbichler et al. (2010)) in order to assess the possible impact on travel behavior. We look at the indicators of modal split, CO2-emissions and km-travelled per mode. For this study, we adapted the MARS Austria model MARS-UBA, most recently applied for the quantification of back-casting to reach the national goal of climate neutrality in the year 2040 for the passenger transport sector (Angelini et al. 2022).
While the concept of the MSG can be considered as a pull measure to improve public transport services and conditions for active mobility, the scenarios also combine the approach with push measures to curb private car use, like carbon taxes, in different intensities. Sensitivity testing shows the impacts of single measures as well as the combined effects and sets them into relation with climate goals.

Angelini, A., Heinfellner, H., Pfaffenbichler, P., Schwingshackl, M. (2022). TRANSITION MOBILITY 2040 - Entwicklung eines Klima- und Energieszenarios zur Abbildung von Klimaneutralität im Verkehr 2040, Umwelbundesamt GmbH, forthcoming.

Bundeskanzleramt (BKA). (2020). Aus Verantwortung für Österreich. Regierungsprogramm 2020 – 2024. Vienna. URL: https://www.bundeskanzleramt.gv.at/bundeskanzleramt/die- bundesregierung/regierungsdokumente.html

Laa, B., Shibayama, T., Brezina, T., Schönfelder, S., Damjanovic, D., Szalai, E., Hammel, M. (2022). A Nationwide Mobility Service Guarantee for Austria – Possible Design Scenarios and Implications. Manuscript submitted for publication.

Mattioli, G. (2016). Transport needs in a climate-constrained world. A novel framework to reconcile social and environmental sustainability in transport. Energy Research & Social Science, 18, 118-128. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2016.03.025

Pfaffenbichler, P., Emberger, G., & Shepherd, S. (2010). A system dynamics approach to land use transport interaction modelling: the strategic model MARS and its application. System Dynamics Review, 26(3), 262-282. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.451

Programme committee
System Dynamics

Topic
Behaviour Change – the impacts of the climate emergency and COVID-19 on long term travel patterns