Conference Papers 2019

Seminar
Day 2 (10 Oct 2019), Session 6, Rail Cargo Developments, 14:00 - 15:30

Status
Accepted, documents submitted

Submitted by / Abstract owner
Shamema Akter

Authors
Shamema Akter
Economist, ACE Consultant Ltd. associate of SMEC international (SMEC Member of the Surbana Jurong Group) and life member of BEA, Bangladesh
shamema.akter@smec.com
shamema.mphilecon@gmail.com

Short abstract
This paper describes, ‘the Conversion of MG double track into DG double track’ of railway has a positive impact on economic growth of country .

Abstract
The analysis will increase the capacity of the existing rail network to handle the growing traffic demand by ‘’Conversion of Tongi - Bhairab Bazar - Akhaura MG double track into DG double track’’ by phasing in Dhaka-Chittagong Corridor(C1) of Bangladesh. The Tongi – Bhairab Bazar – Akhaura section covers a total of 97.10 route km out of the entire 320.79 km of the Dhaka-Chittagong rail corridor of Bangladesh. This section-C1(Tongi-Bhairab Bazar - Akhaura MG double track into DG double track) part of DCCRPPF (The Dhaka-Chittagong-Cox’s Bazar Rail Project Preparatory Facility) Project and DCCRPPF Project consists of the eight components.

Thus, I have economic researched of C1 of this DCCRPPF Project and from my research emphasizes that Bangladesh GDP growth will be increase for this project and, this amount by 0.23% i.e. GDP would be 8.09% pa with the Project over the 30 years of the conversion of Tongi - Bhairab Bazar - Akhaura MG double track into DG double track of railway. Also, it is demonstrated that faster BG passenger trains can appropriate in 20% more trips; and BG trains carry 25% more passengers. Moreover, the Bangladesh Railway (BR) operations benefit from this project because, the containers are double-stacked (fewer rakes of wagons are needed, and the track capacity limitation is deferred); This economic analysis presents an economic of the benefit to the country of this section. South of Chittagong a line extends to Dohazari. “Gauge unification” is an overarching goal of BR. It will provide regional connectivity. For Bangladesh, cost efficient, high capacity and environmentally friendly transport system is required. For this reason, rail communication should be given priority in a large extent. The country needs a rail communication system where every corner of the country can be connected by rail. Also, the rail line will connect Chittagong and Cox's Bazar with Kolkata, Myanmar and China in the future and may create a railway corridor among Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) countries and there is enormous economic potential of Chittagong District with an exclusive advantage of ports, roads and railways. Yet, Bangladesh is part of the proposed BCIM corridor. And, BCIM corridor is included with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Besides, Bangladesh has the geographical boost to connect itself to neighboring countries including China, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), central Asia and west Asia and beyond using multimodal connectivity through road-rail-air and shipping. This DCCRPPF project is absolutely relative with the BCIM Economic Corridor.

However, it will be possible for Indian Railways (IR) trains to operate seamlessly into and across Bangladesh. From the economic analysis, the EIRR is 21.0% pa and economic NPV (2021 NPV @ 9%pa) is 1193.3 million USD, largely driven by IR transit revenues and without IR transit revenues the EIRR is 15.3%pa and NPV @ 9%pa is 546.1 million USD. Consequently, the Project is highly beneficial to Bangladesh, economically. It is the robust from the economic point of view. This paper focuses to find out what will be impact of ‘C1 on Bangladesh’s economy specially on Gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and how Bangladesh will be benefited from this project, besides what steps Bangladesh government should be take it meaningful. Moreover, on Gauge conversion of BR and more benefit of Bangladesh. It gives the more economic benefit with potential for Dual Gauge Rail System and also gives the positive impact it will have on their economic growth.

Key words: GDP growth, EIRR, NPV, B:C ratio, BG (broad gauge), MG (metre gauge), DG (dual gauge), C1, BR (Bangladesh Railway)

Programme committee
Transport Economics, Finance and Appraisal

Topic
Autonomous vehicles – looking beyond the technology.