AET Transport and Mobility Forum – City of London Hybrid Seminar

Refocusing appraisal: Insights from practice and new methods from urban economics

The AET Transport and Mobility Forum in collaboration with City of London Corporation and Oxera Consulting LLP hosted a hybrid seminar titled “Refocusing appraisal: Insights from practice and new methods from urban economics” in London on Thursday 05 March 2026. Hosted by Ola Faleti (Jacobs UK), and Chaired by Charlene Rohr, Technical Director in the Mott MacDonald Futures Team.

The first presentation was from Andy Meaney, Partner and Head of Transport at Oxera Consulting LLP. He questioned whether it's possible to use the same appraisal approach across all schemes and throughout the planning phase for transport schemes. Appraisal has different purposes at different times, and trying to use the same tool for different tasks can both lead to schemes not proceeding when they should (Type I errors), and schemes proceeding when they should not (Type II errors).

Dr Dániel Hörcher, Senior Research Associate, Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies presented frameworks for transport appraisal using quantitative urban models, a potential approach to better quantify the spatial reorganisation of economic activity following major transport schemes such as the Elizabeth Line (Crossrail) and to capture the wider economic impacts these investments generate. He demonstrated that, in aggregate terms, these types of models are broadly consistent with the evaluation metrics derived using the UK’s current appraisal guidance. However, the spatial equilibrium approach eliminates double counting concerns and reveals a rich pattern of wider economic impacts across space. QSMs integrate transport and related markets, and so the traditional disciplinary boundaries between transport and urban economics are disappearing in the most recent literature. Daniel opened the floor for discussion on whether this approach will be adopted by appraisal practitioners in the UK and elsewhere and, if it is adopted, how quickly, given the need to learn about the approach?